Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Henglin Home Furnishings Co.,Ltd (603661.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$340.19 - $400.80$375.60
Multi-Stage$130.17 - $142.69$136.32
Blended Fair Value$255.96
Current Price$31.62
Upside709.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.72%0.00%0.661.691.240.310.410.280.660.000.010.94
YoY Growth---61.05%36.95%295.81%-23.31%45.68%-57.68%28,626.61%-76.56%-98.96%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.24%3.78%3.55%1.20%0.92%1.13%2.48%0.01%0.02%1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)275.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)158.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)117.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.1734.4820.69
Cash Retained (M)117.11117.11117.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.17-34.48-20.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)61.9482.6396.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)136.88136.88136.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.600.70
LTM Dividend per Share1.161.161.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.600.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.611.761.86
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$340.19$375.60$400.80
Upside / Downside975.86%1,087.87%1,167.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)275.85293.78312.88333.22354.87377.94389.28
Payout Ratio57.55%64.04%70.53%77.02%83.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)158.75188.13220.67256.64296.35340.15360.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)178.11179.80181.48
Year 2 PV (M)197.78201.54205.35
Year 3 PV (M)217.76224.01230.38
Year 4 PV (M)238.06247.21256.63
Year 5 PV (M)258.67271.17284.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,727.0617,534.9918,373.83
Equity Value (M)17,817.4318,658.7119,531.81
Shares Outstanding (M)136.88136.88136.88
Fair Value$130.17$136.32$142.69
Upside / Downside311.67%331.11%351.28%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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