DDM Analysis: 603586.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$6.08 - $8.86	$7.42
Multi-Stage	$8.91 - $9.75	$9.32
Blended Fair Value	$8.37
Current Price	$19.60
Upside	-57.29%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	17.44%	0.36%	0.46	0.52	0.06	0.76	0.65	0.21	0.44	0.48	0.37	0.36
YoY Growth	-	-	-11.77%	738.71%	-91.75%	15.68%	216.44%	-52.75%	-8.37%	28.87%	3.40%	-19.56%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.15%	3.54%	0.41%	6.75%	4.52%	1.22%	2.70%	2.24%	1.20%	1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	157.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	80.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)	76.84

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	31.47	19.67	11.80
Cash Retained (M)	76.84	76.84	76.84
(-) Cash Required (M)	-31.47	-19.67	-11.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)	45.37	57.17	65.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	196.99	196.99	196.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.23	0.29	0.33
LTM Dividend per Share	0.41	0.41	0.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.23	0.29	0.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.64	0.70	0.74
WACC / Discount Rate	9.86%	9.86%	9.86%
Growth Rate	-0.60%	0.40%	1.40%
Fair Value	$6.08	$7.42	$8.86
Upside / Downside	-69.00%	-62.13%	-54.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	157.36	158.00	158.64	159.28	159.93	160.58	165.39
Payout Ratio	51.17%	58.94%	66.70%	74.47%	82.23%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	80.52	93.12	105.82	118.62	131.52	144.52	152.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.86%	9.86%	9.86%
Growth Rate	-0.60%	0.40%	1.40%
Year 1 PV (M)	83.92	84.76	85.61
Year 2 PV (M)	85.94	87.67	89.43
Year 3 PV (M)	86.81	89.46	92.16
Year 4 PV (M)	86.74	90.28	93.93
Year 5 PV (M)	85.90	90.30	94.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,325.32	1,393.34	1,464.12
Equity Value (M)	1,754.62	1,835.82	1,920.14
Shares Outstanding (M)	196.99	196.99	196.99
Fair Value	$8.91	$9.32	$9.75
Upside / Downside	-54.55%	-52.45%	-50.27%

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Shandong Gold Phoenix Co.,Ltd (603586.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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