DDM Analysis: 603565.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$84.65 - $202.33	$189.62
Multi-Stage	$30.69 - $33.53	$32.08
Blended Fair Value	$110.85
Current Price	$10.89
Upside	917.90%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	63.43%	73.83%	0.84	0.15	1.50	0.29	0.10	0.07	0.05	0.25	0.00	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	462.95%	-90.06%	423.48%	200.00%	32.68%	45.32%	-80.48%	6,472.66%	-93.56%	1,699.48%
Dividend Yield	-	-	8.76%	1.65%	12.97%	2.35%	0.84%	0.64%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,137.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,864.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)	272.86

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	427.42	267.14	160.28
Cash Retained (M)	272.86	272.86	272.86
(-) Cash Required (M)	-427.42	-267.14	-160.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-154.56	5.72	112.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,100.57	2,100.57	2,100.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.07	0.00	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.89	0.89	0.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.07	0.00	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.81	0.89	0.94
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$84.65	$189.62	$202.33
Upside / Downside	677.28%	1,641.19%	1,757.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,137.09	2,276.00	2,423.94	2,581.50	2,749.30	2,928.00	3,015.84
Payout Ratio	87.23%	87.79%	88.34%	88.89%	89.45%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,864.24	1,998.01	2,141.30	2,294.77	2,459.15	2,635.20	2,789.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,858.20	1,875.81	1,893.42
Year 2 PV (M)	1,852.11	1,887.38	1,922.99
Year 3 PV (M)	1,845.96	1,898.95	1,952.95
Year 4 PV (M)	1,839.77	1,910.52	1,983.29
Year 5 PV (M)	1,833.52	1,922.08	2,014.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	55,228.90	57,896.48	60,666.15
Equity Value (M)	64,458.45	67,391.22	70,432.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,100.57	2,100.57	2,100.57
Fair Value	$30.69	$32.08	$33.53
Upside / Downside	181.78%	194.60%	207.90%

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Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics Co., Ltd. (603565.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener