DDM Analysis: 603527.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.46 - $46.90	$20.96
Multi-Stage	$8.15 - $8.89	$8.51
Blended Fair Value	$14.74
Current Price	$11.56
Upside	27.47%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	13.70%	-1.61%	0.26	0.27	0.23	0.15	0.15	0.14	0.13	0.10	0.09	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	-4.88%	18.60%	50.71%	-0.28%	12.10%	5.40%	33.62%	9.81%	94.07%	-85.09%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.60%	2.51%	1.68%	1.34%	2.02%	1.46%	1.40%	0.74%	0.90%	0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	135.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	82.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)	53.31

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	27.14	16.97	10.18
Cash Retained (M)	53.31	53.31	53.31
(-) Cash Required (M)	-27.14	-16.97	-10.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)	26.16	36.34	43.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	315.78	315.78	315.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.12	0.14
LTM Dividend per Share	0.26	0.26	0.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.12	0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.34	0.38	0.40
WACC / Discount Rate	8.41%	8.41%	8.41%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$12.46	$20.96	$46.90
Upside / Downside	7.79%	81.28%	305.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	135.72	144.54	153.94	163.94	174.60	185.95	191.53
Payout Ratio	60.72%	66.58%	72.43%	78.29%	84.14%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	82.41	96.23	111.50	128.35	146.92	167.35	177.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.41%	8.41%	8.41%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	87.93	88.77	89.60
Year 2 PV (M)	93.10	94.87	96.66
Year 3 PV (M)	97.92	100.73	103.60
Year 4 PV (M)	102.42	106.36	110.41
Year 5 PV (M)	106.61	111.75	117.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,085.53	2,186.26	2,290.85
Equity Value (M)	2,573.51	2,688.75	2,808.22
Shares Outstanding (M)	315.78	315.78	315.78
Fair Value	$8.15	$8.51	$8.89
Upside / Downside	-29.50%	-26.34%	-23.07%

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Anhui Zhongyuan New Materials Co., Ltd. (603527.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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