Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co., Ltd. (603198.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$160.89 - $521.51$488.73
Multi-Stage$70.11 - $76.65$73.32
Blended Fair Value$281.03
Current Price$41.15
Upside582.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.18%21.27%1.301.100.910.700.700.700.700.600.500.40
YoY Growth--18.11%21.56%28.68%0.51%0.00%0.00%16.67%20.00%25.00%111.64%
Dividend Yield--2.41%1.61%1.36%1.30%1.99%4.34%3.75%3.95%2.35%1.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,094.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,203.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)890.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)418.86261.79157.07
Cash Retained (M)890.97890.97890.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-418.86-261.79-157.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)472.12629.19733.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)798.64798.64798.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.790.92
LTM Dividend per Share1.511.511.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.790.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.102.292.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$160.89$488.73$521.51
Upside / Downside290.99%1,087.69%1,167.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,094.282,230.412,375.392,529.792,694.222,869.352,955.43
Payout Ratio57.46%63.97%70.47%76.98%83.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,203.311,426.691,674.031,947.502,249.442,582.412,733.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,322.371,334.911,347.44
Year 2 PV (M)1,438.181,465.571,493.22
Year 3 PV (M)1,550.781,595.301,640.66
Year 4 PV (M)1,660.241,724.091,789.76
Year 5 PV (M)1,766.631,851.961,940.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,255.0750,585.8153,005.75
Equity Value (M)55,993.2758,557.6361,217.39
Shares Outstanding (M)798.64798.64798.64
Fair Value$70.11$73.32$76.65
Upside / Downside70.38%78.18%86.28%

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