DDM Analysis: 603158.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.89 - $45.90	$17.42
Multi-Stage	$6.25 - $6.82	$6.53
Blended Fair Value	$11.98
Current Price	$10.88
Upside	10.09%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	18.88%	15.85%	0.22	0.15	0.13	0.16	0.11	0.09	0.16	0.07	0.06	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	45.89%	10.90%	-16.98%	51.61%	16.57%	-43.56%	122.59%	30.96%	2,021.55%	-94.74%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.30%	1.77%	1.72%	2.16%	1.23%	1.03%	1.78%	0.80%	0.39%	0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	156.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	98.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)	57.33

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	31.24	19.53	11.72
Cash Retained (M)	57.33	57.33	57.33
(-) Cash Required (M)	-31.24	-19.53	-11.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)	26.09	37.80	45.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	497.05	497.05	497.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.08	0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.08	0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.25	0.27	0.29
WACC / Discount Rate	8.18%	8.18%	8.18%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$9.89	$17.42	$45.90
Upside / Downside	-9.06%	60.14%	321.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	156.21	166.37	177.18	188.70	200.97	214.03	220.45
Payout Ratio	63.30%	68.64%	73.98%	79.32%	84.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	98.89	114.20	131.08	149.68	170.14	192.63	203.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.18%	8.18%	8.18%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	104.57	105.56	106.55
Year 2 PV (M)	109.91	112.01	114.12
Year 3 PV (M)	114.92	118.22	121.59
Year 4 PV (M)	119.62	124.22	128.95
Year 5 PV (M)	124.01	130.00	136.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,533.99	2,656.38	2,783.46
Equity Value (M)	3,107.03	3,246.40	3,390.90
Shares Outstanding (M)	497.05	497.05	497.05
Fair Value	$6.25	$6.53	$6.82
Upside / Downside	-42.55%	-39.97%	-37.30%

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Financial Statements

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Changzhou Tenglong AutoPartsCo.,Ltd. (603158.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener