Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.,Ltd (603136.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.47 - $5.31$4.33
Multi-Stage$4.90 - $5.36$5.13
Blended Fair Value$4.73
Current Price$11.83
Upside-60.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.79%2.60%0.380.010.010.160.310.240.140.070.200.20
YoY Growth--4,652.74%-28.01%-92.99%-49.49%31.72%68.34%89.39%-61.94%-0.18%-33.14%
Dividend Yield--3.25%0.06%0.05%1.12%2.08%2.30%1.06%0.59%2.11%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)102.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)65.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.5012.817.69
Cash Retained (M)36.6636.6636.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.50-12.81-7.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.1623.8528.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)272.43272.43272.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Fair Value$3.47$4.33$5.31
Upside / Downside-70.68%-63.42%-55.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)102.49104.13105.79107.48109.20110.94114.27
Payout Ratio64.23%69.39%74.54%79.69%84.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)65.8372.2578.8685.6592.6599.85105.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Year 1 PV (M)65.4466.0966.74
Year 2 PV (M)64.6865.9867.28
Year 3 PV (M)63.6465.5567.51
Year 4 PV (M)62.3464.8667.45
Year 5 PV (M)60.8563.9367.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,018.441,070.071,123.78
Equity Value (M)1,335.391,396.481,459.90
Shares Outstanding (M)272.43272.43272.43
Fair Value$4.90$5.13$5.36
Upside / Downside-58.56%-56.67%-54.70%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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