DDM Analysis: 601952.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$33.73 - $83.39	$78.15
Multi-Stage	$12.36 - $13.51	$12.93
Blended Fair Value	$45.54
Current Price	$9.38
Upside	385.47%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	13.22%	14.89%	0.37	0.30	0.24	0.21	0.20	0.20	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15
YoY Growth	-	-	24.02%	25.00%	14.29%	5.00%	0.00%	30.00%	6.00%	0.00%	0.00%	56.25%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.94%	2.91%	2.03%	1.50%	1.85%	1.80%	1.96%	1.60%	1.41%	1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	577.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	389.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)	188.25

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	115.56	72.23	43.34
Cash Retained (M)	188.25	188.25	188.25
(-) Cash Required (M)	-115.56	-72.23	-43.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)	72.69	116.03	144.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,378.00	1,378.00	1,378.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.08	0.11
LTM Dividend per Share	0.28	0.28	0.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.08	0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.34	0.37	0.39
WACC / Discount Rate	6.55%	6.55%	6.55%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$33.73	$78.15	$83.39
Upside / Downside	259.60%	733.15%	789.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	577.82	615.37	655.37	697.97	743.34	791.66	815.41
Payout Ratio	67.42%	71.94%	76.45%	80.97%	85.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	389.56	442.67	501.04	565.13	635.44	712.49	754.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.55%	6.55%	6.55%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	411.56	415.46	419.37
Year 2 PV (M)	433.09	441.34	449.67
Year 3 PV (M)	454.16	467.20	480.48
Year 4 PV (M)	474.77	493.03	511.81
Year 5 PV (M)	494.93	518.83	543.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	14,762.06	15,475.07	16,215.37
Equity Value (M)	17,030.57	17,810.94	18,620.35
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,378.00	1,378.00	1,378.00
Fair Value	$12.36	$12.93	$13.51
Upside / Downside	31.76%	37.80%	44.06%

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Financial Statements

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Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. (601952.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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