Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Publishing & Media Co., Ltd. (601921.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.50 - $6.63$5.53
Multi-Stage$8.28 - $9.09$8.68
Blended Fair Value$7.10
Current Price$8.25
Upside-13.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-6.51%0.00%0.390.350.330.100.190.550.270.440.000.00
YoY Growth--11.19%7.09%241.54%-49.75%-65.05%104.50%-39.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.00%3.95%3.95%1.16%1.29%3.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,282.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)666.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)615.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)256.51160.3296.19
Cash Retained (M)615.89615.89615.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-256.51-160.32-96.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)359.38455.57519.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,220.682,220.682,220.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.510.53
WACC / Discount Rate8.05%8.05%8.05%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.50$5.53$6.63
Upside / Downside-45.40%-33.01%-19.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,282.561,269.731,257.031,244.461,232.021,219.701,256.29
Payout Ratio51.98%59.58%67.19%74.79%82.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)666.67756.55844.57930.761,015.131,097.731,162.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.05%8.05%8.05%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)693.10700.17707.24
Year 2 PV (M)708.84723.38738.06
Year 3 PV (M)715.65737.78760.37
Year 4 PV (M)715.06744.70775.24
Year 5 PV (M)708.39745.27783.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,841.4715,614.3016,418.99
Equity Value (M)18,382.5019,265.6020,183.59
Shares Outstanding (M)2,220.682,220.682,220.68
Fair Value$8.28$8.68$9.09
Upside / Downside0.34%5.16%10.17%

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