Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jiangsu Zijin Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd (601860.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.30 - $12.97$8.85
Multi-Stage$10.48 - $11.53$10.99
Blended Fair Value$9.92
Current Price$2.80
Upside254.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-25.10%26.28%0.110.110.150.240.340.470.500.090.050.06
YoY Growth--6.02%-30.88%-36.79%-29.64%-27.69%-5.39%461.40%65.45%-7.80%440.00%
Dividend Yield--4.04%4.06%5.89%7.81%8.93%11.24%5.40%1.98%1.19%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,476.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)369.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,106.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)295.25184.53110.72
Cash Retained (M)1,106.421,106.421,106.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-295.25-184.53-110.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)811.16921.88995.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,058.654,058.654,058.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate5.92%5.92%5.92%
Growth Rate1.24%2.24%3.24%
Fair Value$6.30$8.85$12.97
Upside / Downside124.95%216.04%363.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,476.271,509.321,543.111,577.651,612.971,649.071,698.54
Payout Ratio25.05%38.04%51.03%64.02%77.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)369.86574.19787.481,010.031,242.161,484.171,571.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.92%5.92%5.92%
Growth Rate1.24%2.24%3.24%
Year 1 PV (M)536.81542.12547.42
Year 2 PV (M)688.30701.97715.77
Year 3 PV (M)825.37850.07875.26
Year 4 PV (M)948.99987.041,026.23
Year 5 PV (M)1,060.081,113.481,169.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,488.7540,427.5742,443.75
Equity Value (M)42,548.3044,622.2446,777.43
Shares Outstanding (M)4,058.654,058.654,058.65
Fair Value$10.48$10.99$11.53
Upside / Downside274.41%292.66%311.62%

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