DDM Analysis: 601858.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.55 - $26.76	$17.85
Multi-Stage	$9.41 - $10.26	$9.82
Blended Fair Value	$13.84
Current Price	$19.54
Upside	-29.19%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.21%	75.96%	0.26	0.28	0.25	0.25	0.19	0.11	0.18	0.03	0.17	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	-6.48%	9.43%	-0.01%	33.73%	75.93%	-39.35%	439.58%	-80.65%	549.19%	2,773.53%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.32%	1.10%	1.38%	2.87%	1.96%	1.16%	1.49%	0.35%	0.96%	0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	525.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	205.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)	319.87

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	105.08	65.68	39.41
Cash Retained (M)	319.87	319.87	319.87
(-) Cash Required (M)	-105.08	-65.68	-39.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)	214.79	254.20	280.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	790.50	790.50	790.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.32	0.35
LTM Dividend per Share	0.26	0.26	0.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.32	0.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.53	0.58	0.61
WACC / Discount Rate	9.97%	9.97%	9.97%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$12.55	$17.85	$26.76
Upside / Downside	-35.78%	-8.66%	36.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	525.40	559.55	595.92	634.66	675.91	719.85	741.44
Payout Ratio	39.12%	49.29%	59.47%	69.65%	79.82%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	205.53	275.83	354.40	442.02	539.54	647.86	685.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.97%	9.97%	9.97%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	248.47	250.82	253.18
Year 2 PV (M)	287.58	293.05	298.58
Year 3 PV (M)	323.09	332.37	341.82
Year 4 PV (M)	355.25	368.91	382.96
Year 5 PV (M)	384.26	402.82	422.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,836.08	6,117.96	6,410.63
Equity Value (M)	7,434.73	7,765.94	8,109.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	790.50	790.50	790.50
Fair Value	$9.41	$9.82	$10.26
Upside / Downside	-51.87%	-49.72%	-47.50%

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Financial Statements

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China Science Publishing & Media Ltd. (601858.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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