DDM Analysis: 601728.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.99 - $18.02	$11.58
Multi-Stage	$6.21 - $6.77	$6.49
Blended Fair Value	$9.04
Current Price	$6.66
Upside	35.67%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	21.48%	14.27%	0.26	0.22	0.29	0.09	0.10	0.10	0.08	0.08	0.07	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	17.29%	-24.41%	214.47%	-8.89%	4.17%	17.48%	0.50%	16.04%	5.34%	-0.61%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.28%	3.64%	4.58%	2.31%	1.66%	1.59%	1.35%	1.35%	1.16%	1.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	36,373.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	15,722.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)	20,651.04

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7,274.66	4,546.67	2,728.00
Cash Retained (M)	20,651.04	20,651.04	20,651.04
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7,274.66	-4,546.67	-2,728.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13,376.37	16,104.37	17,923.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	91,507.10	91,507.10	91,507.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.20
LTM Dividend per Share	0.17	0.17	0.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.32	0.35	0.37
WACC / Discount Rate	9.28%	9.28%	9.28%
Growth Rate	5.10%	6.10%	7.10%
Fair Value	$7.99	$11.58	$18.02
Upside / Downside	19.90%	73.95%	170.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	36,373.32	38,591.56	40,945.07	43,442.11	46,091.44	48,902.34	50,369.41
Payout Ratio	43.22%	52.58%	61.93%	71.29%	80.64%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	15,722.28	20,291.37	25,359.27	30,969.84	37,170.42	44,012.10	46,591.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.28%	9.28%	9.28%
Growth Rate	5.10%	6.10%	7.10%
Year 1 PV (M)	18,392.58	18,567.59	18,742.59
Year 2 PV (M)	20,835.29	21,233.67	21,635.82
Year 3 PV (M)	23,063.93	23,728.56	24,405.84
Year 4 PV (M)	25,091.30	26,059.98	27,056.44
Year 5 PV (M)	26,929.55	28,235.32	29,591.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)	453,671.86	475,669.68	498,512.65
Equity Value (M)	567,984.51	593,494.80	619,944.60
Shares Outstanding (M)	91,507.10	91,507.10	91,507.10
Fair Value	$6.21	$6.49	$6.77
Upside / Downside	-6.80%	-2.62%	1.72%

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Financial Statements

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China Telecom Corporation Limited (601728.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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