DDM Analysis: 601579.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$6.94 - $13.39	$9.52
Multi-Stage	$6.26 - $6.81	$6.53
Blended Fair Value	$8.02
Current Price	$20.52
Upside	-60.91%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.52%	12.37%	0.21	0.31	0.20	0.06	0.02	0.14	0.13	0.12	0.12	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	-31.95%	57.10%	224.38%	148.83%	-82.56%	5.27%	8.73%	-2.05%	-6.56%	103.55%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.01%	3.08%	1.57%	0.66%	0.26%	1.83%	1.32%	1.13%	0.92%	1.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	199.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	189.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)	10.52

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	39.96	24.98	14.99
Cash Retained (M)	10.52	10.52	10.52
(-) Cash Required (M)	-39.96	-24.98	-14.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-29.44	-14.46	-4.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	469.59	469.59	469.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.40	0.40	0.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.34	0.37	0.39
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	4.86%	5.86%	6.86%
Fair Value	$6.94	$9.52	$13.39
Upside / Downside	-66.17%	-53.63%	-34.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	199.82	211.53	223.92	237.03	250.91	265.60	273.57
Payout Ratio	94.73%	93.79%	92.84%	91.89%	90.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	189.30	198.39	207.88	217.81	228.19	239.04	253.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	4.86%	5.86%	6.86%
Year 1 PV (M)	178.65	180.35	182.06
Year 2 PV (M)	168.58	171.81	175.07
Year 3 PV (M)	159.06	163.65	168.34
Year 4 PV (M)	150.06	155.87	161.84
Year 5 PV (M)	141.56	148.44	155.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,141.24	2,245.31	2,353.39
Equity Value (M)	2,939.15	3,065.44	3,196.28
Shares Outstanding (M)	469.59	469.59	469.59
Fair Value	$6.26	$6.53	$6.81
Upside / Downside	-69.50%	-68.19%	-66.83%

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Kuaijishan Shaoxing Rice Wine Co., Ltd. (601579.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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