DDM Analysis: 601398.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.74 - $19.20	$15.07
Multi-Stage	$20.35 - $22.35	$21.33
Blended Fair Value	$18.20
Current Price	$7.30
Upside	149.33%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.33%	5.55%	0.51	0.49	0.42	0.38	0.37	0.34	0.33	0.30	0.29	0.30
YoY Growth	-	-	2.87%	18.76%	10.99%	2.42%	7.41%	4.93%	9.61%	1.71%	-2.38%	0.79%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.39%	9.35%	9.34%	7.87%	6.62%	6.63%	5.77%	4.87%	6.03%	6.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	366,746.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	159,072.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	207,674.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	73,349.20	45,843.25	27,505.95
Cash Retained (M)	207,674.00	207,674.00	207,674.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-73,349.20	-45,843.25	-27,505.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	134,324.80	161,830.75	180,168.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	348,222.20	348,222.20	348,222.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.39	0.46	0.52
LTM Dividend per Share	0.46	0.46	0.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.39	0.46	0.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.84	0.92	0.97
WACC / Discount Rate	7.09%	7.09%	7.09%
Growth Rate	-0.08%	0.92%	1.92%
Fair Value	$11.74	$15.07	$19.20
Upside / Downside	60.79%	106.40%	162.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	366,746.00	370,115.21	373,515.37	376,946.77	380,409.69	383,904.42	395,421.55
Payout Ratio	43.37%	52.70%	62.02%	71.35%	80.67%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	159,072.00	195,047.42	231,670.42	268,949.84	306,894.67	345,513.98	365,764.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.09%	7.09%	7.09%
Growth Rate	-0.08%	0.92%	1.92%
Year 1 PV (M)	180,327.53	182,132.27	183,937.01
Year 2 PV (M)	198,022.35	202,005.85	206,029.03
Year 3 PV (M)	212,538.07	218,983.48	225,557.90
Year 4 PV (M)	224,221.16	233,332.96	242,719.69
Year 5 PV (M)	233,385.94	245,300.86	257,697.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,039,108.48	6,347,419.45	6,668,195.79
Equity Value (M)	7,087,603.53	7,429,174.87	7,784,136.93
Shares Outstanding (M)	348,222.20	348,222.20	348,222.20
Fair Value	$20.35	$21.33	$22.35
Upside / Downside	178.82%	192.25%	206.22%

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Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (601398.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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