DDM Analysis: 601225.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$235.42 - $392.49	$367.82
Multi-Stage	$64.82 - $70.88	$67.79
Blended Fair Value	$217.81
Current Price	$20.00
Upside	989.04%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	31.18%	20.50%	1.54	2.20	1.71	0.89	0.43	0.40	0.46	0.33	0.20	0.19
YoY Growth	-	-	-29.81%	28.32%	91.44%	106.34%	9.20%	-13.03%	39.56%	63.10%	8.20%	-22.42%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.78%	8.88%	8.41%	5.43%	3.92%	5.30%	4.82%	4.24%	3.24%	4.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	19,129.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	14,357.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4,772.37

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3,825.93	2,391.20	1,434.72
Cash Retained (M)	4,772.37	4,772.37	4,772.37
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3,825.93	-2,391.20	-1,434.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)	946.44	2,381.16	3,337.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	9,693.02	9,693.02	9,693.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.25	0.34
LTM Dividend per Share	1.48	1.48	1.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.25	0.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.58	1.73	1.83
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$235.42	$367.82	$392.49
Upside / Downside	1,077.09%	1,739.10%	1,862.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	19,129.63	20,373.06	21,697.31	23,107.63	24,609.63	26,209.26	26,995.53
Payout Ratio	75.05%	78.04%	81.03%	84.02%	87.01%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	14,357.26	15,899.54	17,581.65	19,415.26	21,412.96	23,588.33	24,970.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	14,829.69	14,970.26	15,110.82
Year 2 PV (M)	15,295.18	15,586.51	15,880.59
Year 3 PV (M)	15,753.82	16,206.05	16,666.86
Year 4 PV (M)	16,205.66	16,828.89	17,469.91
Year 5 PV (M)	16,650.79	17,455.03	18,290.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)	549,539.99	576,082.97	603,641.82
Equity Value (M)	628,275.13	657,129.71	687,060.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	9,693.02	9,693.02	9,693.02
Fair Value	$64.82	$67.79	$70.88
Upside / Downside	224.09%	238.97%	254.41%

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Financial Statements

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Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited (601225.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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