DDM Analysis: 601186.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$58.14 - $325.23	$110.95
Multi-Stage	$47.42 - $51.92	$49.63
Blended Fair Value	$80.29
Current Price	$7.85
Upside	922.80%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	50.91%	6.65%	1.64	1.44	0.25	0.23	0.21	0.21	0.93	0.87	0.76	0.85
YoY Growth	-	-	14.33%	484.47%	6.96%	9.52%	0.00%	-77.46%	7.47%	13.88%	-10.59%	-1.38%
Dividend Yield	-	-	20.76%	16.53%	2.73%	3.00%	2.62%	2.14%	7.99%	8.85%	5.86%	7.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	22,511.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	14,496.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)	8,015.05

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	4,502.38	2,813.99	1,688.39
Cash Retained (M)	8,015.05	8,015.05	8,015.05
(-) Cash Required (M)	-4,502.38	-2,813.99	-1,688.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,512.67	5,201.07	6,326.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	13,579.54	13,579.54	13,579.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.26	0.38	0.47
LTM Dividend per Share	1.07	1.07	1.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.26	0.38	0.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.33	1.45	1.53
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	4.05%	5.05%	6.05%
Fair Value	$58.14	$110.95	$325.23
Upside / Downside	640.64%	1,313.36%	4,043.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	22,511.90	23,647.93	24,841.29	26,094.87	27,411.71	28,795.01	29,658.86
Payout Ratio	64.40%	69.52%	74.64%	79.76%	84.88%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	14,496.84	16,439.35	18,541.00	20,812.89	23,266.86	25,915.51	27,434.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	4.05%	5.05%	6.05%
Year 1 PV (M)	15,300.60	15,447.65	15,594.71
Year 2 PV (M)	16,061.29	16,371.50	16,684.69
Year 3 PV (M)	16,780.44	17,268.94	17,766.83
Year 4 PV (M)	17,459.52	18,140.48	18,841.17
Year 5 PV (M)	18,099.97	18,986.66	19,907.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)	560,298.34	587,746.32	616,259.62
Equity Value (M)	644,000.16	673,961.55	705,054.76
Shares Outstanding (M)	13,579.54	13,579.54	13,579.54
Fair Value	$47.42	$49.63	$51.92
Upside / Downside	504.13%	532.24%	561.41%

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China Railway Construction Corporation Limited (601186.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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