DDM Analysis: 601126.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$19.42 - $43.55	$28.12
Multi-Stage	$14.91 - $16.24	$15.57
Blended Fair Value	$21.84
Current Price	$20.19
Upside	8.18%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	28.58%	15.61%	0.60	0.60	0.49	0.95	0.17	0.17	0.19	0.20	0.19	0.14
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.15%	23.00%	-48.98%	473.19%	-2.13%	-10.42%	-6.36%	9.36%	30.17%	1.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.52%	3.88%	3.35%	7.38%	2.05%	2.86%	2.82%	2.92%	1.78%	1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	810.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	599.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)	210.47

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	162.09	101.30	60.78
Cash Retained (M)	210.47	210.47	210.47
(-) Cash Required (M)	-162.09	-101.30	-60.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)	48.39	109.17	149.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	835.55	835.55	835.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.13	0.18
LTM Dividend per Share	0.72	0.72	0.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.13	0.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.78	0.85	0.90
WACC / Discount Rate	9.71%	9.71%	9.71%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$19.42	$28.12	$43.55
Upside / Downside	-3.79%	39.27%	115.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	810.43	863.11	919.21	978.96	1,042.59	1,110.36	1,143.67
Payout Ratio	74.03%	77.22%	80.42%	83.61%	86.81%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	599.95	666.52	739.20	818.52	905.03	999.32	1,057.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.71%	9.71%	9.71%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	601.80	607.50	613.21
Year 2 PV (M)	602.62	614.10	625.68
Year 3 PV (M)	602.49	619.78	637.40
Year 4 PV (M)	601.47	624.61	648.40
Year 5 PV (M)	599.65	628.62	658.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,454.19	9,910.83	10,384.95
Equity Value (M)	12,462.22	13,005.43	13,568.33
Shares Outstanding (M)	835.55	835.55	835.55
Fair Value	$14.91	$15.57	$16.24
Upside / Downside	-26.13%	-22.91%	-19.57%

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Financial Statements

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Beijing Sifang Automation Co.,Ltd (601126.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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