DDM Analysis: 601019.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.63 - $16.74	$12.68
Multi-Stage	$11.06 - $12.10	$11.57
Blended Fair Value	$12.12
Current Price	$7.66
Upside	58.24%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	13.98%	11.89%	0.55	0.38	0.35	0.32	0.31	0.29	0.22	0.19	0.32	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	43.92%	11.20%	9.38%	0.21%	9.69%	30.90%	15.70%	-39.86%	404.09%	-65.18%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.68%	3.39%	4.37%	4.88%	5.29%	4.44%	2.48%	1.87%	2.15%	0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,544.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	648.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)	895.72

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	308.82	193.01	115.81
Cash Retained (M)	895.72	895.72	895.72
(-) Cash Required (M)	-308.82	-193.01	-115.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)	586.90	702.70	779.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,120.44	2,120.44	2,120.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.28	0.33	0.37
LTM Dividend per Share	0.31	0.31	0.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.28	0.33	0.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.58	0.64	0.67
WACC / Discount Rate	8.80%	8.80%	8.80%
Growth Rate	2.59%	3.59%	4.59%
Fair Value	$9.63	$12.68	$16.74
Upside / Downside	25.69%	65.48%	118.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,544.11	1,599.54	1,656.96	1,716.44	1,778.05	1,841.88	1,897.14
Payout Ratio	41.99%	51.59%	61.19%	70.80%	80.40%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	648.39	825.25	1,013.97	1,215.18	1,429.52	1,657.69	1,754.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.80%	8.80%	8.80%
Growth Rate	2.59%	3.59%	4.59%
Year 1 PV (M)	751.20	758.53	765.85
Year 2 PV (M)	840.17	856.63	873.25
Year 3 PV (M)	916.54	943.60	971.20
Year 4 PV (M)	981.46	1,020.29	1,060.26
Year 5 PV (M)	1,035.99	1,087.48	1,140.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)	18,918.71	19,858.92	20,836.14
Equity Value (M)	23,444.08	24,525.45	25,647.69
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,120.44	2,120.44	2,120.44
Fair Value	$11.06	$11.57	$12.10
Upside / Downside	44.34%	50.99%	57.90%

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Shandong Publishing&Media Co.,Ltd (601019.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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