Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (600968.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.66 - $74.73$26.50
Multi-Stage$7.86 - $8.60$8.22
Blended Fair Value$17.36
Current Price$3.84
Upside352.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.80%21.03%0.120.090.060.050.050.050.030.130.180.49
YoY Growth--28.28%58.46%26.49%-0.02%-11.77%91.57%-79.36%-29.25%-62.92%2,767.61%
Dividend Yield--2.89%2.59%1.73%1.72%1.70%2.25%0.91%4.40%6.23%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,820.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,415.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,405.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)764.07477.54286.52
Cash Retained (M)2,405.142,405.142,405.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-764.07-477.54-286.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,641.081,927.602,118.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,166.5510,166.5510,166.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate7.82%7.82%7.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.66$26.50$74.73
Upside / Downside255.76%590.03%1,846.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,820.334,068.654,333.114,614.764,914.725,234.185,391.21
Payout Ratio37.04%47.63%58.23%68.82%79.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,415.181,938.092,523.003,175.763,902.724,710.764,986.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.82%7.82%7.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,780.621,797.501,814.38
Year 2 PV (M)2,129.672,170.232,211.18
Year 3 PV (M)2,462.862,533.562,605.60
Year 4 PV (M)2,780.712,887.652,997.64
Year 5 PV (M)3,083.743,232.683,387.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,705.8370,976.0574,371.43
Equity Value (M)79,943.4383,597.6787,387.55
Shares Outstanding (M)10,166.5510,166.5510,166.55
Fair Value$7.86$8.22$8.60
Upside / Downside104.78%114.14%123.84%

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