DDM Analysis: 600864.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.26 - $3.29	$2.76
Multi-Stage	$5.46 - $6.02	$5.73
Blended Fair Value	$4.24
Current Price	$7.35
Upside	-42.25%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-10.41%	8.03%	0.16	0.17	0.28	0.25	0.34	0.28	0.50	0.23	0.15	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	-6.71%	-39.43%	15.44%	-28.09%	23.07%	-44.65%	115.24%	51.59%	36.26%	52.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.64%	3.23%	5.60%	4.43%	5.66%	4.29%	6.28%	3.63%	1.53%	0.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	620.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	185.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)	435.76

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	124.16	77.60	46.56
Cash Retained (M)	435.76	435.76	435.76
(-) Cash Required (M)	-124.16	-77.60	-46.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)	311.60	358.16	389.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,023.75	2,023.75	2,023.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.19
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.25	0.27	0.28
WACC / Discount Rate	6.68%	6.68%	6.68%
Growth Rate	-3.78%	-2.78%	-1.78%
Fair Value	$2.26	$2.76	$3.29
Upside / Downside	-69.31%	-62.50%	-55.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	620.82	603.54	586.73	570.39	554.51	539.07	555.24
Payout Ratio	29.81%	41.85%	53.89%	65.92%	77.96%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	185.06	252.56	316.16	376.02	432.30	485.16	513.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.68%	6.68%	6.68%
Growth Rate	-3.78%	-2.78%	-1.78%
Year 1 PV (M)	234.31	236.74	239.18
Year 2 PV (M)	272.11	277.79	283.54
Year 3 PV (M)	300.23	309.69	319.35
Year 4 PV (M)	320.22	333.75	347.69
Year 5 PV (M)	333.40	351.09	369.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,583.88	10,092.38	10,622.25
Equity Value (M)	11,044.15	11,601.45	12,181.52
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,023.75	2,023.75	2,023.75
Fair Value	$5.46	$5.73	$6.02
Upside / Downside	-25.75%	-22.00%	-18.10%

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Financial Statements

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Harbin Hatou Investment Co.,Ltd (600864.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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