Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Time Publishing and Media Co., Ltd. (600551.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.26 - $110.21$36.77
Multi-Stage$12.57 - $13.72$13.14
Blended Fair Value$24.95
Current Price$8.51
Upside193.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.44%11.06%0.500.190.130.220.010.150.160.200.190.20
YoY Growth--157.15%54.35%-44.03%1,423.83%-90.45%-2.46%-20.27%4.31%-5.02%14.68%
Dividend Yield--6.05%2.03%1.51%3.29%0.29%2.90%2.06%2.33%1.31%1.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)415.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)286.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)128.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)83.0751.9231.15
Cash Retained (M)128.88128.88128.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-83.07-51.92-31.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)45.8176.9697.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)677.95677.95677.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.110.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.110.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate8.05%8.05%8.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.26$36.77$110.21
Upside / Downside138.03%332.07%1,195.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)415.36442.36471.12501.74534.35569.09586.16
Payout Ratio68.97%73.18%77.38%81.59%85.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)286.48323.71364.56409.36458.44512.18542.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.05%8.05%8.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)296.77299.58302.40
Year 2 PV (M)306.41312.25318.14
Year 3 PV (M)315.43324.49333.72
Year 4 PV (M)323.86336.31349.12
Year 5 PV (M)331.71347.73364.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,949.637,285.307,633.81
Equity Value (M)8,523.818,905.669,301.55
Shares Outstanding (M)677.95677.95677.95
Fair Value$12.57$13.14$13.72
Upside / Downside47.74%54.36%61.22%

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