DDM Analysis: 600449.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.09 - $4.19	$3.65
Multi-Stage	$5.54 - $6.09	$5.81
Blended Fair Value	$4.73
Current Price	$13.17
Upside	-64.10%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-3.76%	-3.61%	0.32	0.45	0.62	0.70	0.56	0.38	0.32	0.23	0.24	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	-29.35%	-27.65%	-11.88%	25.20%	46.41%	18.84%	38.46%	-3.73%	123.92%	-76.36%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.17%	2.71%	3.80%	4.99%	3.71%	3.04%	3.29%	2.02%	1.88%	1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	292.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	115.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)	176.28

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	58.40	36.50	21.90
Cash Retained (M)	176.28	176.28	176.28
(-) Cash Required (M)	-58.40	-36.50	-21.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)	117.87	139.77	154.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	464.90	464.90	464.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.30	0.33
LTM Dividend per Share	0.25	0.25	0.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.30	0.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.50	0.55	0.58
WACC / Discount Rate	9.75%	9.75%	9.75%
Growth Rate	-5.61%	-4.61%	-3.61%
Fair Value	$3.09	$3.65	$4.19
Upside / Downside	-76.55%	-72.28%	-68.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	292.02	278.56	265.73	253.48	241.80	230.66	237.58
Payout Ratio	39.64%	49.71%	59.78%	69.85%	79.93%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	115.74	138.47	158.85	177.07	193.27	207.59	219.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.75%	9.75%	9.75%
Growth Rate	-5.61%	-4.61%	-3.61%
Year 1 PV (M)	124.84	126.16	127.49
Year 2 PV (M)	129.13	131.88	134.66
Year 3 PV (M)	129.77	133.93	138.19
Year 4 PV (M)	127.70	133.20	138.87
Year 5 PV (M)	123.67	130.36	137.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,938.66	2,043.55	2,152.93
Equity Value (M)	2,573.76	2,699.08	2,829.47
Shares Outstanding (M)	464.90	464.90	464.90
Fair Value	$5.54	$5.81	$6.09
Upside / Downside	-57.96%	-55.92%	-53.79%

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Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.,Ltd (600449.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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