Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Yabao Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd (600351.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.80 - $9.19$6.56
Multi-Stage$11.51 - $12.66$12.07
Blended Fair Value$9.32
Current Price$6.54
Upside42.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.96%2.04%0.160.070.110.080.070.340.160.080.160.24
YoY Growth--121.53%-37.18%35.11%22.03%-79.44%112.80%91.74%-47.68%-33.31%82.27%
Dividend Yield--2.60%1.13%1.62%1.01%1.41%6.79%1.91%1.09%1.82%2.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)222.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)210.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.5727.8616.71
Cash Retained (M)12.5112.5112.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.57-27.86-16.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)-32.06-15.35-4.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)714.52714.52714.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate0.04%1.04%2.04%
Fair Value$4.80$6.56$9.19
Upside / Downside-26.65%0.31%40.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)222.85225.17227.51229.88232.27234.68241.72
Payout Ratio94.39%93.51%92.63%91.75%90.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)210.34210.55210.75210.92211.08211.22223.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate0.04%1.04%2.04%
Year 1 PV (M)198.08200.06202.04
Year 2 PV (M)186.52190.27194.06
Year 3 PV (M)175.62180.94186.37
Year 4 PV (M)165.34172.05178.97
Year 5 PV (M)155.65163.59171.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,345.157,719.678,109.31
Equity Value (M)8,226.378,626.599,042.60
Shares Outstanding (M)714.52714.52714.52
Fair Value$11.51$12.07$12.66
Upside / Downside76.04%84.61%93.51%

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