Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Humanwell Healthcare (Group) Co.,Ltd. (600079.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.91 - $26.64$19.02
Multi-Stage$14.30 - $15.64$14.96
Blended Fair Value$16.99
Current Price$21.08
Upside-19.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.44%16.58%0.780.360.380.410.430.600.630.350.290.26
YoY Growth--115.98%-4.12%-7.91%-6.25%-27.12%-5.28%82.12%20.60%11.23%53.73%
Dividend Yield--3.77%1.79%1.40%2.36%1.41%4.39%5.17%2.22%1.45%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,428.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)686.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)742.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)285.73178.58107.15
Cash Retained (M)742.55742.55742.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-285.73-178.58-107.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)456.83563.97635.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,632.851,632.851,632.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.350.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.350.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate8.64%8.64%8.64%
Growth Rate3.44%4.44%5.44%
Fair Value$13.91$19.02$26.64
Upside / Downside-34.00%-9.77%26.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,428.631,492.011,558.211,627.341,699.541,774.941,828.19
Payout Ratio48.02%56.42%64.81%73.21%81.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)686.07841.771,009.941,191.361,386.901,597.451,691.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.64%8.64%8.64%
Growth Rate3.44%4.44%5.44%
Year 1 PV (M)767.41774.83782.24
Year 2 PV (M)839.37855.68872.15
Year 3 PV (M)902.69929.12956.07
Year 4 PV (M)958.01995.601,034.28
Year 5 PV (M)1,005.961,055.541,107.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,880.8819,811.3820,778.20
Equity Value (M)23,354.3224,422.1425,529.99
Shares Outstanding (M)1,632.851,632.851,632.85
Fair Value$14.30$14.96$15.64
Upside / Downside-32.15%-29.05%-25.83%

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