DDM Analysis: 600033.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.15 - $3.11	$2.62
Multi-Stage	$3.21 - $3.52	$3.36
Blended Fair Value	$2.99
Current Price	$3.36
Upside	-11.09%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-7.11%	-3.57%	0.18	0.15	0.15	0.10	0.11	0.26	0.21	0.25	0.21	0.26
YoY Growth	-	-	21.16%	0.00%	50.00%	-10.02%	-57.71%	25.19%	-16.74%	22.04%	-19.62%	-1.66%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.72%	4.49%	5.15%	3.44%	4.09%	9.63%	6.05%	7.20%	5.37%	7.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	809.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	222.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)	586.35

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	161.83	101.14	60.69
Cash Retained (M)	586.35	586.35	586.35
(-) Cash Required (M)	-161.83	-101.14	-60.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)	424.52	485.21	525.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,744.40	2,744.40	2,744.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.19
LTM Dividend per Share	0.08	0.08	0.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.24	0.26	0.27
WACC / Discount Rate	9.61%	9.61%	9.61%
Growth Rate	-1.23%	-0.23%	0.77%
Fair Value	$2.15	$2.62	$3.11
Upside / Downside	-36.04%	-22.15%	-7.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	809.15	807.28	805.42	803.56	801.70	799.85	823.85
Payout Ratio	27.53%	40.03%	52.52%	65.01%	77.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	222.80	323.14	423.01	522.43	621.38	719.87	762.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.61%	9.61%	9.61%
Growth Rate	-1.23%	-0.23%	0.77%
Year 1 PV (M)	291.85	294.81	297.76
Year 2 PV (M)	345.07	352.10	359.19
Year 3 PV (M)	384.91	396.72	408.77
Year 4 PV (M)	413.50	430.50	448.02
Year 5 PV (M)	432.66	455.01	478.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,930.40	7,288.41	7,661.07
Equity Value (M)	8,798.39	9,217.55	9,653.09
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,744.40	2,744.40	2,744.40
Fair Value	$3.21	$3.36	$3.52
Upside / Downside	-4.58%	-0.04%	4.68%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Fujian Expressway Development Co.,Ltd (600033.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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