DDM Analysis: 600016.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.31 - $11.73	$9.30
Multi-Stage	$13.51 - $14.84	$14.16
Blended Fair Value	$11.73
Current Price	$3.98
Upside	194.80%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.49%	16.78%	0.70	0.73	0.54	0.24	0.68	0.65	0.53	0.53	0.43	0.24
YoY Growth	-	-	-4.59%	34.79%	122.30%	-64.09%	4.90%	23.02%	-0.21%	24.14%	79.98%	59.74%
Dividend Yield	-	-	17.95%	18.25%	15.78%	6.41%	13.50%	11.39%	8.18%	7.95%	6.03%	3.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	30,352.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	18,549.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	11,803.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	6,070.40	3,794.00	2,276.40
Cash Retained (M)	11,803.00	11,803.00	11,803.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-6,070.40	-3,794.00	-2,276.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5,732.60	8,009.00	9,526.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	43,840.74	43,840.74	43,840.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.18	0.22
LTM Dividend per Share	0.42	0.42	0.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.18	0.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.55	0.61	0.64
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	-0.51%	0.49%	1.49%
Fair Value	$7.31	$9.30	$11.73
Upside / Downside	83.55%	133.77%	194.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	30,352.00	30,501.20	30,651.14	30,801.81	30,953.22	31,105.38	32,038.54
Payout Ratio	61.11%	66.89%	72.67%	78.45%	84.22%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	18,549.00	20,402.36	22,273.50	24,162.53	26,069.60	27,994.84	29,635.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	-0.51%	0.49%	1.49%
Year 1 PV (M)	18,871.80	19,061.48	19,251.16
Year 2 PV (M)	19,056.98	19,441.99	19,830.85
Year 3 PV (M)	19,122.34	19,704.75	20,298.88
Year 4 PV (M)	19,083.84	19,862.74	20,665.24
Year 5 PV (M)	18,955.80	19,927.78	20,939.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)	497,379.50	522,883.11	549,422.34
Equity Value (M)	592,470.25	620,881.85	650,407.70
Shares Outstanding (M)	43,840.74	43,840.74	43,840.74
Fair Value	$13.51	$14.16	$14.84
Upside / Downside	239.55%	255.83%	272.76%

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China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. (600016.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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