DDM Analysis: 600015.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$87.96 - $338.91	$250.05
Multi-Stage	$43.30 - $47.35	$45.28
Blended Fair Value	$147.67
Current Price	$6.58
Upside	2,144.17%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.63%	13.64%	0.99	0.96	0.88	0.80	0.68	0.54	0.44	0.31	0.30	0.31
YoY Growth	-	-	2.96%	9.10%	9.91%	18.03%	24.39%	22.98%	44.34%	2.56%	-4.17%	13.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	12.60%	14.61%	16.33%	14.37%	10.51%	8.41%	5.24%	3.44%	3.18%	3.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	27,147.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	13,510.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	13,637.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5,429.40	3,393.38	2,036.03
Cash Retained (M)	13,637.00	13,637.00	13,637.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5,429.40	-3,393.38	-2,036.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	8,207.60	10,243.63	11,600.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	15,914.98	15,914.98	15,914.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.52	0.64	0.73
LTM Dividend per Share	0.85	0.85	0.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.52	0.64	0.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.36	1.49	1.58
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	5.40%	6.40%	7.40%
Fair Value	$87.96	$250.05	$338.91
Upside / Downside	1,236.83%	3,700.12%	5,050.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	27,147.00	28,884.25	30,732.67	32,699.38	34,791.95	37,018.43	38,128.98
Payout Ratio	49.77%	57.81%	65.86%	73.91%	81.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	13,510.00	16,698.81	20,240.43	24,166.95	28,513.12	33,316.59	35,269.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	5.40%	6.40%	7.40%
Year 1 PV (M)	15,454.71	15,601.34	15,747.97
Year 2 PV (M)	17,336.84	17,667.38	18,001.03
Year 3 PV (M)	19,157.87	19,708.35	20,269.28
Year 4 PV (M)	20,919.21	21,724.49	22,552.79
Year 5 PV (M)	22,622.27	23,716.00	24,851.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)	593,583.67	622,281.87	652,079.46
Equity Value (M)	689,074.57	720,699.41	753,502.16
Shares Outstanding (M)	15,914.98	15,914.98	15,914.98
Fair Value	$43.30	$45.28	$47.35
Upside / Downside	558.01%	588.21%	619.54%

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Hua Xia Bank Co., Limited (600015.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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