DDM Analysis: 600004.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.17 - $4.36	$3.77
Multi-Stage	$5.37 - $5.91	$5.63
Blended Fair Value	$4.70
Current Price	$9.48
Upside	-50.40%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.92%	-8.44%	0.08	0.01	0.02	0.04	0.13	0.15	0.21	0.23	0.16	0.14
YoY Growth	-	-	1,297.02%	-72.98%	-53.38%	-66.64%	-14.71%	-29.17%	-5.95%	43.30%	10.49%	-21.62%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.83%	0.05%	0.13%	0.35%	0.96%	1.20%	1.41%	1.44%	1.43%	1.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,353.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	380.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	973.12

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	270.74	169.21	101.53
Cash Retained (M)	973.12	973.12	973.12
(-) Cash Required (M)	-270.74	-169.21	-101.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)	702.37	803.90	871.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,343.85	2,343.85	2,343.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.34	0.37
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.34	0.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.46	0.51	0.53
WACC / Discount Rate	9.69%	9.69%	9.69%
Growth Rate	-4.27%	-3.27%	-2.27%
Fair Value	$3.17	$3.77	$4.36
Upside / Downside	-66.59%	-60.23%	-53.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,353.72	1,309.43	1,266.60	1,225.17	1,185.09	1,146.32	1,180.71
Payout Ratio	28.12%	40.49%	52.87%	65.25%	77.62%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	380.60	530.22	669.64	799.37	919.90	1,031.69	1,092.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.69%	9.69%	9.69%
Growth Rate	-4.27%	-3.27%	-2.27%
Year 1 PV (M)	478.37	483.37	488.36
Year 2 PV (M)	545.08	556.52	568.09
Year 3 PV (M)	587.05	605.64	624.61
Year 4 PV (M)	609.50	635.37	662.05
Year 5 PV (M)	616.72	649.61	683.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,754.23	10,274.46	10,816.65
Equity Value (M)	12,590.93	13,204.96	13,843.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,343.85	2,343.85	2,343.85
Fair Value	$5.37	$5.63	$5.91
Upside / Downside	-43.33%	-40.57%	-37.70%

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Financial Statements

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Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Co., Ltd. (600004.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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