DDM Analysis: 5386.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$102.61 - $139.42	$121.37
Multi-Stage	$196.88 - $216.25	$206.37
Blended Fair Value	$163.87
Current Price	$416.00
Upside	-60.61%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
DPS	-5.53%	0.00%	11.52	5.10	7.39	12.04	6.86	15.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	125.80%	-30.95%	-38.67%	75.47%	-55.15%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.92%	1.36%	1.91%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	156.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	90.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)	66.41

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	31.31	19.57	11.74
Cash Retained (M)	66.41	66.41	66.41
(-) Cash Required (M)	-31.31	-19.57	-11.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)	35.10	46.84	54.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	7.52	7.52	7.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share	4.67	6.23	7.27
LTM Dividend per Share	11.98	11.98	11.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share	4.67	6.23	7.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend	16.65	18.21	19.25
WACC / Discount Rate	9.40%	9.40%	9.40%
Growth Rate	-5.87%	-4.87%	-3.87%
Fair Value	$102.61	$121.37	$139.42
Upside / Downside	-75.33%	-70.82%	-66.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	156.56	148.94	141.69	134.80	128.23	121.99	125.65
Payout Ratio	57.58%	64.06%	70.55%	77.03%	83.52%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	90.15	95.42	99.96	103.84	107.10	109.79	116.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.40%	9.40%	9.40%
Growth Rate	-5.87%	-4.87%	-3.87%
Year 1 PV (M)	86.30	87.22	88.13
Year 2 PV (M)	81.77	83.51	85.28
Year 3 PV (M)	76.82	79.29	81.82
Year 4 PV (M)	71.66	74.75	77.95
Year 5 PV (M)	66.44	70.05	73.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,098.17	1,157.76	1,219.90
Equity Value (M)	1,481.16	1,552.58	1,626.89
Shares Outstanding (M)	7.52	7.52	7.52
Fair Value	$196.88	$206.37	$216.25
Upside / Downside	-52.67%	-50.39%	-48.02%

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Tsuruya Co., Ltd. (5386.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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