DDM Analysis: 4968.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1,119.84 - $1,943.88	$1,473.22
Multi-Stage	$2,225.37 - $2,445.78	$2,333.45
Blended Fair Value	$1,903.33
Current Price	$1,096.00
Upside	73.66%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	1.11%	6.13%	47.99	47.99	47.99	47.99	43.95	45.42	40.53	42.64	32.06	30.80
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	9.17%	-3.22%	12.06%	-4.96%	33.02%	4.09%	16.38%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.68%	3.97%	4.81%	4.84%	3.69%	3.67%	2.76%	2.40%	1.67%	3.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,734.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	971.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	763.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	346.80	216.75	130.05
Cash Retained (M)	763.00	763.00	763.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-346.80	-216.75	-130.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)	416.20	546.25	632.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	19.84	19.84	19.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share	20.98	27.53	31.90
LTM Dividend per Share	48.94	48.94	48.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share	20.98	27.53	31.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend	69.92	76.48	80.85
WACC / Discount Rate	6.16%	6.16%	6.16%
Growth Rate	-0.08%	0.92%	1.92%
Fair Value	$1,119.84	$1,473.22	$1,943.88
Upside / Downside	2.18%	34.42%	77.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,734.00	1,749.91	1,765.96	1,782.17	1,798.52	1,815.02	1,869.47
Payout Ratio	56.00%	62.80%	69.60%	76.40%	83.20%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	971.00	1,098.91	1,229.09	1,361.56	1,496.36	1,633.51	1,729.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.16%	6.16%	6.16%
Growth Rate	-0.08%	0.92%	1.92%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,024.92	1,035.18	1,045.44
Year 2 PV (M)	1,069.15	1,090.66	1,112.38
Year 3 PV (M)	1,104.65	1,138.15	1,172.32
Year 4 PV (M)	1,132.27	1,178.29	1,225.69
Year 5 PV (M)	1,152.84	1,211.69	1,272.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)	38,664.79	40,638.74	42,692.51
Equity Value (M)	44,148.62	46,292.71	48,521.26
Shares Outstanding (M)	19.84	19.84	19.84
Fair Value	$2,225.37	$2,333.45	$2,445.78
Upside / Downside	103.04%	112.91%	123.16%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Arakawa Chemical Industries, Ltd. (4968.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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