Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Sanyo Chemical Industries Ltd. (4471.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,873.65 - $7,236.51$6,001.39
Multi-Stage$12,946.76 - $14,288.61$13,604.21
Blended Fair Value$9,802.80
Current Price$4,120.00
Upside137.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.81%8.55%169.97169.70169.20164.28139.37134.39114.64109.5889.6979.79
YoY Growth--0.16%0.29%3.00%17.87%3.70%17.23%4.62%22.18%12.41%6.65%
Dividend Yield--4.65%4.22%3.99%3.45%2.58%2.90%2.00%2.28%1.70%2.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,629.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,760.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,869.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,725.801,703.631,022.18
Cash Retained (M)9,869.009,869.009,869.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,725.80-1,703.63-1,022.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,143.208,165.388,846.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.1222.1222.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share322.91369.12399.92
LTM Dividend per Share169.97169.97169.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share322.91369.12399.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend492.88539.09569.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate-3.59%-2.59%-1.59%
Fair Value$4,873.65$6,001.39$7,236.51
Upside / Downside18.29%45.66%75.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,629.0013,275.5512,931.2612,595.9112,269.2511,951.0612,309.59
Payout Ratio27.59%40.07%52.55%65.04%77.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,760.005,319.596,795.768,191.789,510.8310,755.9511,386.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate-3.59%-2.59%-1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)4,959.645,011.095,062.53
Year 2 PV (M)5,907.216,030.406,154.85
Year 3 PV (M)6,638.896,847.637,060.70
Year 4 PV (M)7,186.347,489.187,801.49
Year 5 PV (M)7,577.237,978.458,396.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)254,131.26267,587.72281,608.25
Equity Value (M)286,400.57300,944.46316,084.32
Shares Outstanding (M)22.1222.1222.12
Fair Value$12,946.76$13,604.21$14,288.61
Upside / Downside214.24%230.20%246.81%

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