Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Al Rajhi REIT Fund (4340.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$102.87 - $238.10$223.13
Multi-Stage$36.36 - $39.74$38.02
Blended Fair Value$130.58
Current Price$8.32
Upside1,469.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS13.94%0.00%0.540.450.300.280.240.280.080.000.000.00
YoY Growth--19.09%50.35%9.02%14.19%-13.86%262.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.42%5.08%3.05%2.52%2.48%2.89%0.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)329.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)275.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)54.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.9941.2524.75
Cash Retained (M)54.4654.4654.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.99-41.25-24.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.5313.2129.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)275.61275.61275.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.050.11
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.050.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.961.051.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$102.87$223.13$238.10
Upside / Downside1,136.43%2,581.90%2,761.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)329.97351.41374.26398.58424.49452.08465.64
Payout Ratio83.50%84.80%86.10%87.40%88.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)275.51297.99322.22348.35376.52406.87430.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)277.22279.85282.47
Year 2 PV (M)278.87284.19289.55
Year 3 PV (M)280.48288.53296.73
Year 4 PV (M)282.03292.87304.03
Year 5 PV (M)283.52297.22311.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,619.119,035.429,467.66
Equity Value (M)10,021.2310,478.0710,951.88
Shares Outstanding (M)275.61275.61275.61
Fair Value$36.36$38.02$39.74
Upside / Downside337.03%356.95%377.61%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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