DDM Analysis: 4204.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1,812.45 - $2,871.31	$2,295.35
Multi-Stage	$1,751.25 - $1,906.96	$1,827.71
Blended Fair Value	$2,061.53
Current Price	$2,755.00
Upside	-25.17%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	8.45%	9.62%	76.71	66.85	57.21	51.72	50.33	51.13	47.33	43.56	37.32	33.20
YoY Growth	-	-	14.75%	16.85%	10.61%	2.77%	-1.57%	8.02%	8.67%	16.71%	12.43%	8.45%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.94%	3.00%	2.76%	2.79%	2.65%	3.32%	2.84%	2.31%	1.86%	2.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	70,721.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	33,106.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	37,615.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	14,144.20	8,840.13	5,304.08
Cash Retained (M)	37,615.00	37,615.00	37,615.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-14,144.20	-8,840.13	-5,304.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)	23,470.80	28,774.88	32,310.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	416.31	416.31	416.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share	56.38	69.12	77.61
LTM Dividend per Share	79.52	79.52	79.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share	56.38	69.12	77.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend	135.90	148.64	157.14
WACC / Discount Rate	11.95%	11.95%	11.95%
Growth Rate	4.14%	5.14%	6.14%
Fair Value	$1,812.45	$2,295.35	$2,871.31
Upside / Downside	-34.21%	-16.68%	4.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	70,721.00	74,355.98	78,177.78	82,196.03	86,420.81	90,862.74	93,588.62
Payout Ratio	46.81%	55.45%	64.09%	72.72%	81.36%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	33,106.00	41,230.16	50,102.01	59,776.94	70,314.06	81,776.46	86,569.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	11.95%	11.95%	11.95%
Growth Rate	4.14%	5.14%	6.14%
Year 1 PV (M)	36,479.29	36,829.58	37,179.88
Year 2 PV (M)	39,220.93	39,977.78	40,741.87
Year 3 PV (M)	41,402.61	42,606.81	43,834.12
Year 4 PV (M)	43,089.13	44,768.16	46,495.80
Year 5 PV (M)	44,338.92	46,509.02	48,763.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)	524,532.01	550,204.35	576,872.18
Equity Value (M)	729,062.90	760,895.70	793,887.11
Shares Outstanding (M)	416.31	416.31	416.31
Fair Value	$1,751.25	$1,827.71	$1,906.96
Upside / Downside	-36.43%	-33.66%	-30.78%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd. (4204.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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