DDM Analysis: 4151.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1,421.57 - $3,100.43	$2,038.15
Multi-Stage	$1,110.77 - $1,208.79	$1,158.91
Blended Fair Value	$1,598.53
Current Price	$2,465.50
Upside	-35.16%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	7.33%	8.49%	58.92	55.36	48.17	46.11	45.07	41.36	30.80	26.09	26.09	26.09
YoY Growth	-	-	6.44%	14.92%	4.48%	2.31%	8.96%	34.31%	18.02%	0.01%	-0.01%	-0.01%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.71%	2.10%	1.67%	1.62%	1.36%	1.71%	1.28%	1.12%	1.48%	1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	38,413.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	30,481.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	7,932.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7,682.60	4,801.63	2,880.98
Cash Retained (M)	7,932.00	7,932.00	7,932.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7,682.60	-4,801.63	-2,880.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)	249.40	3,130.38	5,051.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	524.32	524.32	524.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.48	5.97	9.63
LTM Dividend per Share	58.13	58.13	58.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.48	5.97	9.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend	58.61	64.11	67.77
WACC / Discount Rate	9.85%	9.85%	9.85%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$1,421.57	$2,038.15	$3,100.43
Upside / Downside	-42.34%	-17.33%	25.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	38,413.00	40,909.85	43,568.98	46,400.97	49,417.03	52,629.14	54,208.01
Payout Ratio	79.35%	81.48%	83.61%	85.74%	87.87%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	30,481.00	33,333.58	36,428.22	39,784.33	43,422.82	47,366.23	50,142.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.85%	9.85%	9.85%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	30,059.79	30,344.72	30,629.65
Year 2 PV (M)	29,624.15	30,188.41	30,757.99
Year 3 PV (M)	29,175.88	30,013.41	30,866.83
Year 4 PV (M)	28,716.66	29,821.02	30,956.93
Year 5 PV (M)	28,248.06	29,612.45	31,029.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)	436,569.58	457,656.05	479,549.56
Equity Value (M)	582,394.12	607,636.07	633,790.01
Shares Outstanding (M)	524.32	524.32	524.32
Fair Value	$1,110.77	$1,158.91	$1,208.79
Upside / Downside	-54.95%	-52.99%	-50.97%

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Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. (4151.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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