DDM Analysis: 4012.SR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.77 - $4.73	$3.62
Multi-Stage	$5.52 - $6.06	$5.79
Blended Fair Value	$4.70
Current Price	$3.78
Upside	24.43%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.84%	-1.81%	0.19	0.16	0.15	0.06	0.17	0.15	0.23	0.15	0.00	0.19
YoY Growth	-	-	16.92%	8.33%	166.67%	-66.67%	12.50%	-33.33%	50.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-16.53%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.61%	3.43%	3.99%	1.27%	2.87%	4.44%	10.56%	13.64%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	89.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	80.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	9.83

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	17.97	11.23	6.74
Cash Retained (M)	9.83	9.83	9.83
(-) Cash Required (M)	-17.97	-11.23	-6.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-8.13	-1.39	3.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	400.00	400.00	400.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.02	0.00	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.02	0.00	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.18	0.20	0.21
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	-0.14%	0.86%	1.86%
Fair Value	$2.77	$3.62	$4.73
Upside / Downside	-26.70%	-4.24%	25.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	89.83	90.61	91.39	92.17	92.96	93.76	96.57
Payout Ratio	89.05%	89.24%	89.43%	89.62%	89.81%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	80.00	80.86	81.73	82.60	83.49	84.38	89.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	-0.14%	0.86%	1.86%
Year 1 PV (M)	75.29	76.04	76.80
Year 2 PV (M)	70.85	72.28	73.72
Year 3 PV (M)	66.68	68.70	70.77
Year 4 PV (M)	62.75	65.30	67.93
Year 5 PV (M)	59.05	62.07	65.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,874.59	1,970.35	2,069.98
Equity Value (M)	2,209.21	2,314.74	2,424.40
Shares Outstanding (M)	400.00	400.00	400.00
Fair Value	$5.52	$5.79	$6.06
Upside / Downside	46.11%	53.09%	60.34%

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Thob Al Aseel Company (4012.SR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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