DDM Analysis: 3939.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.05 - $15.09	$10.05
Multi-Stage	$5.18 - $5.66	$5.41
Blended Fair Value	$7.73
Current Price	$7.15
Upside	8.10%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	19.12%	0.07	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	204.33%	-0.99%	238.57%	28.98%	0.00%	-100.00%	833.33%	-62.50%	-50.00%	-63.47%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.54%	2.44%	5.30%	1.74%	1.13%	0.00%	2.07%	0.20%	0.55%	0.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,364.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	334.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,029.63

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	272.88	170.55	102.33
Cash Retained (M)	1,029.63	1,029.63	1,029.63
(-) Cash Required (M)	-272.88	-170.55	-102.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)	756.75	859.08	927.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,667.96	3,667.96	3,667.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.23	0.25
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.23	0.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.30	0.33	0.34
WACC / Discount Rate	9.95%	9.95%	9.95%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$7.05	$10.05	$15.09
Upside / Downside	-1.34%	40.50%	111.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,364.42	1,453.10	1,547.55	1,648.14	1,755.27	1,869.37	1,925.45
Payout Ratio	24.54%	37.63%	50.72%	63.81%	76.91%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	334.78	546.79	784.95	1,051.76	1,349.93	1,682.43	1,781.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.95%	9.95%	9.95%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	492.64	497.31	501.98
Year 2 PV (M)	637.17	649.30	661.55
Year 3 PV (M)	769.19	791.27	813.77
Year 4 PV (M)	889.47	923.68	958.87
Year 5 PV (M)	998.76	1,047.01	1,097.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)	15,211.66	15,946.39	16,709.24
Equity Value (M)	18,998.89	19,854.95	20,742.49
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,667.96	3,667.96	3,667.96
Fair Value	$5.18	$5.41	$5.66
Upside / Downside	-27.56%	-24.29%	-20.91%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Wanguo Gold Group Limited (3939.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener