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Definitive Analysis

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Dali Foods Group Company Limited (3799.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.25 - $8.16$6.59
Multi-Stage$12.47 - $13.72$13.08
Blended Fair Value$9.84
Current Price$3.14
Upside213.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-12.15%0.00%0.130.140.190.220.160.240.110.080.010.00
YoY Growth---11.85%-25.70%-11.50%38.66%-34.91%126.41%29.65%1,307.20%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.02%4.31%5.17%4.23%3.09%4.16%2.90%2.23%0.15%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,619.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,549.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,070.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,523.91952.44571.47
Cash Retained (M)2,070.212,070.212,070.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,523.91-952.44-571.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)546.301,117.761,498.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,694.1213,694.1213,694.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.25$6.59$8.16
Upside / Downside67.18%109.99%159.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,619.547,543.347,467.917,393.237,319.307,246.107,463.49
Payout Ratio72.83%76.26%79.70%83.13%86.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,549.335,752.875,951.796,146.156,336.036,521.496,903.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)5,356.765,411.425,466.08
Year 2 PV (M)5,160.395,266.245,373.16
Year 3 PV (M)4,961.985,115.445,272.02
Year 4 PV (M)4,763.074,960.485,163.96
Year 5 PV (M)4,564.934,802.645,050.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)146,004.12153,606.89161,523.13
Equity Value (M)170,811.25179,163.10187,848.50
Shares Outstanding (M)13,694.1213,694.1213,694.12
Fair Value$12.47$13.08$13.72
Upside / Downside297.24%316.66%336.86%

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