Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Hanking Holdings Limited (3788.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.99 - $41.23$16.24
Multi-Stage$6.08 - $6.67$6.37
Blended Fair Value$11.30
Current Price$2.09
Upside440.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.73%6.65%0.040.020.120.110.100.020.010.170.000.00
YoY Growth--80.51%-83.77%10.49%11.09%502.75%114.94%-95.32%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--5.02%2.58%17.75%10.28%8.77%1.13%0.89%15.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)403.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)145.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)257.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.6850.4330.26
Cash Retained (M)257.54257.54257.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.68-50.43-30.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)176.86207.11227.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,921.191,921.191,921.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate4.14%5.14%6.14%
Fair Value$7.99$16.24$41.23
Upside / Downside282.29%677.05%1,872.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)403.40424.15445.96468.89493.00518.35533.90
Payout Ratio36.16%46.93%57.70%68.46%79.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)145.86199.04257.29321.02390.61466.52493.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate4.14%5.14%6.14%
Year 1 PV (M)185.41187.19188.97
Year 2 PV (M)223.26227.56231.91
Year 3 PV (M)259.47267.02274.71
Year 4 PV (M)294.10305.56317.35
Year 5 PV (M)327.19343.20359.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,395.8410,904.6311,433.15
Equity Value (M)11,685.2612,235.1612,805.93
Shares Outstanding (M)1,921.191,921.191,921.19
Fair Value$6.08$6.37$6.67
Upside / Downside191.02%204.72%218.93%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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