DDM Analysis: 3696.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5,107.96 - $14,697.86	$8,002.82
Multi-Stage	$3,438.23 - $3,756.17	$3,594.32
Blended Fair Value	$5,798.57
Current Price	$2,501.00
Upside	131.85%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.15%	0.00%	19.81	19.78	38.99	17.18	13.46	13.39	11.31	7.16	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.19%	-49.28%	126.91%	27.64%	0.53%	18.39%	58.09%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.85%	1.11%	3.11%	1.05%	0.29%	1.95%	0.54%	0.45%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,359.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	689.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,670.24

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	471.85	294.90	176.94
Cash Retained (M)	1,670.24	1,670.24	1,670.24
(-) Cash Required (M)	-471.85	-294.90	-176.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,198.39	1,375.33	1,493.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	11.51	11.51	11.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share	104.11	119.49	129.73
LTM Dividend per Share	59.86	59.86	59.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share	104.11	119.49	129.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend	163.97	179.34	189.59
WACC / Discount Rate	8.89%	8.89%	8.89%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$5,107.96	$8,002.82	$14,697.86
Upside / Downside	104.24%	219.98%	487.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,359.24	2,512.59	2,675.91	2,849.84	3,035.08	3,232.36	3,329.33
Payout Ratio	29.20%	41.36%	53.52%	65.68%	77.84%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	689.00	1,039.29	1,432.22	1,871.83	2,362.53	2,909.13	3,079.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.89%	8.89%	8.89%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	945.51	954.47	963.44
Year 2 PV (M)	1,185.40	1,207.98	1,230.77
Year 3 PV (M)	1,409.45	1,449.91	1,491.14
Year 4 PV (M)	1,618.42	1,680.66	1,744.67
Year 5 PV (M)	1,813.02	1,900.59	1,991.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	32,603.88	34,178.66	35,813.71
Equity Value (M)	39,575.68	41,372.27	43,235.24
Shares Outstanding (M)	11.51	11.51	11.51
Fair Value	$3,438.23	$3,594.32	$3,756.17
Upside / Downside	37.47%	43.72%	50.19%

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Financial Statements

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Ceres Inc. (3696.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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