Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Genius Electronic Optical Co., Ltd (3406.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$577.62 - $1,252.63$826.50
Multi-Stage$441.66 - $481.16$461.06
Blended Fair Value$643.78
Current Price$428.00
Upside50.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.69%0.00%11.9812.058.0410.018.943.143.090.000.000.00
YoY Growth---0.55%49.78%-19.68%11.99%184.49%1.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.06%2.46%2.09%2.20%1.85%0.76%0.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,384.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,029.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,355.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)676.91423.07253.84
Cash Retained (M)1,355.151,355.151,355.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-676.91-423.07-253.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)678.25932.081,101.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)112.93112.93112.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.018.259.75
LTM Dividend per Share17.9717.9717.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.018.259.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend23.9826.2227.72
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$577.62$826.50$1,252.63
Upside / Downside34.96%93.11%192.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,384.533,604.523,838.814,088.344,354.084,637.094,776.21
Payout Ratio59.96%65.97%71.98%77.98%83.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,029.382,377.842,763.033,188.253,657.084,173.384,417.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,143.732,164.052,184.37
Year 2 PV (M)2,245.752,288.532,331.70
Year 3 PV (M)2,336.232,403.302,471.63
Year 4 PV (M)2,415.932,508.842,604.41
Year 5 PV (M)2,485.572,605.632,730.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,249.9040,097.3842,015.58
Equity Value (M)49,877.1252,067.7354,337.97
Shares Outstanding (M)112.93112.93112.93
Fair Value$441.66$461.06$481.16
Upside / Downside3.19%7.72%12.42%

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