Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (3287.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - Hotel & MotelSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$213,994.60 - $353,420.66$275,819.17
Multi-Stage$295,596.68 - $323,409.88$309,243.39
Blended Fair Value$292,531.28
Current Price$219,600.00
Upside33.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.67%30.57%8,254.607,532.335,847.517,845.1410,778.7310,485.568,604.556,817.804,594.302,653.68
YoY Growth--9.59%28.81%-25.46%-27.22%2.80%21.86%26.21%48.40%73.13%363.11%
Dividend Yield--3.57%2.54%1.66%2.12%4.38%3.55%3.25%1.25%0.75%0.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,051.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,513.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,537.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,010.301,256.44753.86
Cash Retained (M)3,537.933,537.933,537.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,010.30-1,256.44-753.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,527.632,281.492,784.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.540.540.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,804.074,187.835,110.34
LTM Dividend per Share11,956.0511,956.0511,956.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,804.074,187.835,110.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend14,760.1216,143.8817,066.39
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Fair Value$213,994.60$275,819.17$353,420.66
Upside / Downside-2.55%25.60%60.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,051.4810,288.3910,530.8810,779.0911,033.1511,293.2011,631.99
Payout Ratio64.80%69.84%74.88%79.92%84.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,513.567,185.577,885.658,614.739,373.8110,163.8810,759.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Year 1 PV (M)6,567.156,631.946,696.73
Year 2 PV (M)6,586.716,717.326,849.21
Year 3 PV (M)6,576.406,772.986,973.43
Year 4 PV (M)6,540.006,801.947,071.67
Year 5 PV (M)6,480.926,807.007,146.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)128,287.39134,742.00141,453.84
Equity Value (M)161,038.56168,473.17176,190.96
Shares Outstanding (M)0.540.540.54
Fair Value$295,596.68$309,243.39$323,409.88
Upside / Downside34.61%40.82%47.27%

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