Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhongjing Food Co., Ltd. (300908.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.30 - $245.38$103.36
Multi-Stage$28.10 - $30.67$29.36
Blended Fair Value$66.36
Current Price$29.03
Upside128.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.88%28.63%0.890.690.360.340.260.640.200.200.160.15
YoY Growth--29.16%92.90%3.92%30.13%-58.61%223.55%-3.02%25.91%6.22%111.87%
Dividend Yield--3.19%2.44%1.19%1.22%0.63%0.77%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)180.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)146.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.0322.5213.51
Cash Retained (M)33.9933.9933.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.03-22.52-13.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.0411.4820.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)146.00146.00146.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.080.14
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.080.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.991.081.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$49.30$103.36$245.38
Upside / Downside69.81%256.04%745.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)180.14191.85204.32217.61231.75246.81254.22
Payout Ratio81.13%82.90%84.68%86.45%88.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)146.15159.05173.02188.12204.46222.13235.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)146.42147.80149.19
Year 2 PV (M)146.61149.41152.22
Year 3 PV (M)146.75150.96155.25
Year 4 PV (M)146.82152.46158.27
Year 5 PV (M)146.83153.92161.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,369.943,532.713,701.71
Equity Value (M)4,103.364,287.264,477.93
Shares Outstanding (M)146.00146.00146.00
Fair Value$28.10$29.36$30.67
Upside / Downside-3.19%1.15%5.65%

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