DDM Analysis: 300856.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.77 - $22.73	$12.23
Multi-Stage	$5.52 - $6.01	$5.76
Blended Fair Value	$9.00
Current Price	$13.15
Upside	-31.59%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	70.00%	0.00%	1.12	0.41	0.08	0.04	0.06	0.08	0.05	0.06	0.12	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	171.63%	400.00%	100.00%	-26.20%	-29.17%	45.90%	-4.23%	-52.65%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.47%	1.40%	0.43%	0.42%	0.46%	0.75%	0.52%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	126.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	105.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)	20.71

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	25.25	15.78	9.47
Cash Retained (M)	20.71	20.71	20.71
(-) Cash Required (M)	-25.25	-15.78	-9.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-4.54	4.93	11.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	409.79	409.79	409.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.01	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.26	0.26	0.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.01	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.25	0.27	0.28
WACC / Discount Rate	8.85%	8.85%	8.85%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$7.77	$12.23	$22.73
Upside / Downside	-40.93%	-7.00%	72.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	126.23	134.44	143.18	152.49	162.40	172.95	178.14
Payout Ratio	83.60%	84.88%	86.16%	87.44%	88.72%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	105.53	114.11	123.36	133.33	144.08	155.66	164.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.85%	8.85%	8.85%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	103.85	104.83	105.82
Year 2 PV (M)	102.17	104.12	106.08
Year 3 PV (M)	100.50	103.39	106.33
Year 4 PV (M)	98.84	102.64	106.55
Year 5 PV (M)	97.18	101.88	106.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,759.44	1,844.42	1,932.65
Equity Value (M)	2,261.99	2,361.28	2,464.18
Shares Outstanding (M)	409.79	409.79	409.79
Fair Value	$5.52	$5.76	$6.01
Upside / Downside	-58.02%	-56.18%	-54.27%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Nanjing COSMOS Chemical Co., Ltd. (300856.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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