Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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DBG Technology Co., Ltd. (300735.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.45 - $23.52$14.16
Multi-Stage$6.91 - $7.53$7.21
Blended Fair Value$10.69
Current Price$29.22
Upside-63.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.63%24.49%0.300.280.240.230.230.140.090.010.010.07
YoY Growth--8.84%14.68%7.46%0.91%59.43%50.42%1,108.03%12.89%-90.30%108.19%
Dividend Yield--1.10%0.91%2.11%2.08%1.90%0.73%0.65%0.06%0.09%0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)325.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)210.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)115.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.1740.7324.44
Cash Retained (M)115.60115.60115.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.17-40.73-24.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.4274.8691.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)767.11767.11767.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.30%9.30%9.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.45$14.16$23.52
Upside / Downside-67.68%-51.54%-19.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)325.85347.03369.59393.61419.20446.45459.84
Payout Ratio64.53%69.62%74.72%79.81%84.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)210.26241.61276.14314.14355.92401.80425.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.30%9.30%9.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)218.98221.06223.13
Year 2 PV (M)226.84231.17235.53
Year 3 PV (M)233.90240.61247.45
Year 4 PV (M)240.19249.43258.93
Year 5 PV (M)245.76257.63269.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,132.434,332.024,539.26
Equity Value (M)5,298.105,531.925,774.26
Shares Outstanding (M)767.11767.11767.11
Fair Value$6.91$7.21$7.53
Upside / Downside-76.36%-75.32%-74.24%

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