Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd (300573.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.36 - $125.49$83.26
Multi-Stage$43.72 - $47.69$45.67
Blended Fair Value$64.46
Current Price$65.73
Upside-1.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS87.75%46.09%2.210.840.380.190.050.090.090.050.030.05
YoY Growth--163.44%123.39%92.56%299.61%-48.48%0.00%100.00%52.51%-38.11%0.58%
Dividend Yield--3.95%0.75%0.78%0.59%0.15%0.28%1.34%0.53%0.18%1.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)646.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)266.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)379.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)129.2480.7848.47
Cash Retained (M)379.25379.25379.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-129.24-80.78-48.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)250.01298.48330.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)211.23211.23211.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.181.411.57
LTM Dividend per Share1.261.261.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.181.411.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.452.682.83
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$58.36$83.26$125.49
Upside / Downside-11.21%26.66%90.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)646.21688.21732.94780.58831.32885.36911.92
Payout Ratio41.31%51.05%60.79%70.52%80.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)266.95351.32445.53550.50667.24796.82843.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)316.60319.60322.61
Year 2 PV (M)361.82368.72375.67
Year 3 PV (M)402.89414.46426.24
Year 4 PV (M)440.07456.99474.40
Year 5 PV (M)473.60496.47520.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,240.697,590.417,953.53
Equity Value (M)9,235.679,646.6510,072.67
Shares Outstanding (M)211.23211.23211.23
Fair Value$43.72$45.67$47.69
Upside / Downside-33.48%-30.52%-27.45%

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