Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Dawnrays Pharmaceutical (Holdings) Limited (2348.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.25 - $10.78$8.20
Multi-Stage$11.12 - $12.23$11.66
Blended Fair Value$9.93
Current Price$1.13
Upside778.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.57%6.47%0.070.080.070.100.050.070.130.060.070.05
YoY Growth---5.02%17.62%-30.83%76.34%-20.67%-49.33%122.17%-9.86%35.69%25.76%
Dividend Yield--6.43%8.10%5.66%7.04%4.60%5.34%10.46%3.43%3.23%1.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)739.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)244.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)495.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)147.9192.4555.47
Cash Retained (M)495.10495.10495.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-147.91-92.45-55.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)347.19402.66439.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,504.141,504.141,504.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate0.22%1.22%2.22%
Fair Value$6.25$8.20$10.78
Upside / Downside452.75%625.56%854.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)739.57748.60757.75767.00776.37785.85809.42
Payout Ratio33.06%44.44%55.83%67.22%78.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)244.47332.71423.07515.59610.31707.26748.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate0.22%1.22%2.22%
Year 1 PV (M)309.22312.31315.39
Year 2 PV (M)365.45372.78380.18
Year 3 PV (M)413.92426.44439.20
Year 4 PV (M)455.38473.82492.83
Year 5 PV (M)490.46515.42541.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,696.9315,444.9316,223.08
Equity Value (M)16,731.3617,545.7018,392.08
Shares Outstanding (M)1,504.141,504.141,504.14
Fair Value$11.12$11.66$12.23
Upside / Downside884.39%932.30%982.09%

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