Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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TK Group (Holdings) Limited (2283.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.09 - $14.32$10.73
Multi-Stage$14.41 - $15.81$15.10
Blended Fair Value$12.91
Current Price$2.27
Upside468.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.50%19.02%0.220.110.110.130.110.190.180.150.110.08
YoY Growth--88.60%0.00%-14.93%21.82%-42.11%5.56%20.64%36.73%37.50%110.52%
Dividend Yield--9.13%8.14%7.26%5.40%4.43%4.90%4.25%2.68%5.21%3.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)498.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)359.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)138.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)99.6262.2637.36
Cash Retained (M)138.98138.98138.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-99.62-62.26-37.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.3676.72101.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)827.79827.79827.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.090.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.090.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate0.50%1.50%2.50%
Fair Value$8.09$10.73$14.32
Upside / Downside256.23%372.48%531.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)498.12505.60513.20520.92528.75536.70552.80
Payout Ratio72.10%75.68%79.26%82.84%86.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)359.14382.64406.76431.53456.94483.03511.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate0.50%1.50%2.50%
Year 1 PV (M)355.79359.33362.87
Year 2 PV (M)351.68358.72365.82
Year 3 PV (M)346.92357.38368.04
Year 4 PV (M)341.58355.38369.59
Year 5 PV (M)335.74352.78370.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,195.0510,712.4411,250.63
Equity Value (M)11,926.7612,496.0213,087.46
Shares Outstanding (M)827.79827.79827.79
Fair Value$14.41$15.10$15.81
Upside / Downside534.72%565.01%596.49%

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