Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Chengdu Expressway Co., Ltd. (1785.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.10 - $58.92$55.22
Multi-Stage$9.79 - $10.70$10.24
Blended Fair Value$32.73
Current Price$1.93
Upside1,595.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.37%0.00%0.250.250.220.200.190.130.130.070.020.08
YoY Growth--2.61%15.16%6.62%4.02%49.33%-3.02%89.89%214.38%-72.25%0.00%
Dividend Yield--13.32%12.72%12.66%12.09%10.97%7.47%6.98%4.06%1.16%4.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)490.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)432.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.1361.3336.80
Cash Retained (M)58.5158.5158.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.13-61.33-36.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)-39.62-2.8221.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,656.101,656.101,656.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.10$55.22$58.92
Upside / Downside1,718.73%2,761.08%2,952.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)490.67522.56556.53592.70631.23672.26692.42
Payout Ratio88.07%88.46%88.84%89.23%89.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)432.15462.26494.45528.87565.67605.03640.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)431.13435.22439.31
Year 2 PV (M)430.10438.30446.57
Year 3 PV (M)429.07441.39453.94
Year 4 PV (M)428.03444.49461.42
Year 5 PV (M)426.99447.61469.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,070.9614,750.6015,456.24
Equity Value (M)16,216.2916,957.6017,726.50
Shares Outstanding (M)1,656.101,656.101,656.10
Fair Value$9.79$10.24$10.70
Upside / Downside407.35%430.54%454.60%

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