DDM Analysis: 1551.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.93 - $2.65	$2.29
Multi-Stage	$5.23 - $5.78	$5.50
Blended Fair Value	$3.90
Current Price	$1.43
Upside	172.41%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-8.73%	-4.83%	0.10	0.09	0.09	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.13	0.13	0.18
YoY Growth	-	-	3.34%	0.00%	-38.71%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	20.30%	0.00%	-28.57%	12.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.32%	4.67%	3.99%	5.43%	5.16%	4.65%	3.40%	2.48%	2.76%	4.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,838.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,847.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,990.85

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	967.67	604.80	362.88
Cash Retained (M)	1,990.85	1,990.85	1,990.85
(-) Cash Required (M)	-967.67	-604.80	-362.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,023.18	1,386.06	1,627.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	12,942.69	12,942.69	12,942.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.11	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	0.22	0.22	0.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.11	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.30	0.33	0.35
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	-7.34%	-6.34%	-5.34%
Fair Value	$1.93	$2.29	$2.65
Upside / Downside	34.82%	60.20%	84.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,838.37	4,531.53	4,244.14	3,974.99	3,722.90	3,486.80	3,591.40
Payout Ratio	58.85%	65.08%	71.31%	77.54%	83.77%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,847.51	2,949.22	3,026.57	3,082.25	3,118.69	3,138.12	3,322.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	-7.34%	-6.34%	-5.34%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,726.05	2,755.47	2,784.89
Year 2 PV (M)	2,585.85	2,641.97	2,698.69
Year 3 PV (M)	2,434.15	2,513.82	2,595.20
Year 4 PV (M)	2,276.56	2,376.44	2,479.57
Year 5 PV (M)	2,117.40	2,234.15	2,356.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)	55,600.46	58,666.23	61,865.76
Equity Value (M)	67,740.47	71,188.07	74,780.10
Shares Outstanding (M)	12,942.69	12,942.69	12,942.69
Fair Value	$5.23	$5.50	$5.78
Upside / Downside	266.01%	284.63%	304.04%

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Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. (1551.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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