DDM Analysis: 1368.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$31.21 - $151.20	$67.08
Multi-Stage	$16.87 - $18.45	$17.65
Blended Fair Value	$42.36
Current Price	$5.14
Upside	724.17%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	27.03%	17.50%	0.53	0.17	0.20	0.13	0.10	0.16	0.17	0.10	0.12	0.12
YoY Growth	-	-	207.97%	-14.83%	54.41%	27.71%	-36.05%	-4.98%	69.59%	-17.78%	4.01%	10.07%
Dividend Yield	-	-	10.05%	4.33%	2.65%	1.24%	3.16%	4.35%	4.55%	3.94%	4.16%	3.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,059.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	737.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,322.03

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	411.96	257.47	154.48
Cash Retained (M)	1,322.03	1,322.03	1,322.03
(-) Cash Required (M)	-411.96	-257.47	-154.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	910.07	1,064.56	1,167.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,709.16	2,709.16	2,709.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.34	0.39	0.43
LTM Dividend per Share	0.27	0.27	0.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.34	0.39	0.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.61	0.67	0.70
WACC / Discount Rate	7.56%	7.56%	7.56%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$31.21	$67.08	$151.20
Upside / Downside	507.14%	1,205.00%	2,841.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,059.78	2,193.66	2,336.25	2,488.11	2,649.84	2,822.07	2,906.74
Payout Ratio	35.82%	46.65%	57.49%	68.33%	79.16%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	737.75	1,023.42	1,343.12	1,700.04	2,097.70	2,539.87	2,688.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.56%	7.56%	7.56%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	942.59	951.52	960.46
Year 2 PV (M)	1,139.33	1,161.03	1,182.93
Year 3 PV (M)	1,328.20	1,366.32	1,405.17
Year 4 PV (M)	1,509.43	1,567.47	1,627.18
Year 5 PV (M)	1,683.24	1,764.54	1,848.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)	39,108.88	40,997.85	42,959.12
Equity Value (M)	45,711.66	47,808.75	49,983.83
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,709.16	2,709.16	2,709.16
Fair Value	$16.87	$17.65	$18.45
Upside / Downside	228.27%	243.33%	258.95%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Xtep International Holdings Limited (1368.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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